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Given that the experts have often been as wrong as they were right about predicting at least one real estate trend for 2015 (mortgage interest rates), it’s fair to ask why it’s worthwhile to consult them regarding the coming year. Fair enough. The answer is twofold.
First off, for anyone who will be buying or selling a Sebastopol home in the coming year, much could ride on the wider market factors that influence buyer and seller attitudes.
The other part of the answer is because it’s fun. Trying to take a peek into the future gathers a crowd every time: just tune into any cable TV news or feature show and start counting the experts prognosticating. Besides, it’s even more fun, later, to ridicule the experts who were way off.
But putting together a roundup of real estate predictions for 2016 involves some hard virtual pick-and-shovel work. To begin with, you have to eliminate all the real estate predictions for 2016 that emerged more than a month ago. A month may not seem like such a long time, but in the real estate prediction business, it can turn into too long (especially if what you predicted for 2016 is already heading in the wrong direction). At this juncture, that hasn’t befallen any of these prominent national real estate prediction sources Sebastopol readers can note:
- Realtor Magazine – ‘Normal’ is coming. Healthy growth in home sales and prices at a more normal pace
- CoreLogic — Interest rates will gradually move higher but dollar volume of single-family mortgage originations will fall approximately 10% [reason given: refis will fall]
- Housingwire — Moderate growth in housing prices and sales (3.5%-4.5%); easier credit; more first-time home buyers
- BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research—Further expansion in U.S. housing. The “good news for anyone planning to sell a home in 2016” is that existing home sales could increase by as much as 5%; good news for buyers: a slowdown in home-price appreciation
- Trulia — “general consensus at the national level…another good year” with hot markets in the West and Northeast cooling down; markets in the South and Midwest “could experience an uptick” in home sales
The researchers and prognosticators behind these projections seem to be in lock-step, at least as we launch into the new year. Whether or not you will be entering the Sebastopol real estate any time soon, it’s certainly good news that the serious folks who forecast future trends agree that conditions look to be settled, stable and hospitable in the coming year.
There is one thing we know you can count on: We will be standing by throughout 2016, ready to assist with all your Sebastopol real estate needs!
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