Randy Mack | Realtor | 707.696.6272

    Heidi Faulkner | Realtor | 707.480.4098

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Sebastopol Mortgage Interest Rates and Normalcy Bias

 If you look up the term “normalcy bias,” you find yourself swimming in psychological theoretician talk, most of which deals with people’s response to disastrous situations. The theory behind it is that when faced with the unknown, there is a tendency among even rational human beings to misconstrue new (and even dangerous) circumstances as being more normal—hence, safe—than is really the case.

 What this has to do with Sebastopol real estate is not as farfetched as you might think. Ask anyone who wanted to buy a house in the early 1980s, and you will probably get an earful. Because of inflation since then, the asking prices for local homes back then seems pretty inviting today…until we check into the then-current mortgage interest rates. A home that today is valued at $250,000 would have had an asking price in 1983 dollars of just over $94,000—a real bargain. But the October 1981 30-year mortgage interest rate was a colossal 18.39%! In today’s dollars, the monthly payment on a mortgage for the full amount would be a daunting $4,295! That’s not even counting taxes and insurance.

No one is predicting that 18% mortgage interest rates are right around the corner—or even any time in the future—but no rational observer is predicting that they will remain at today’s historic lows, either. Not for nothing is “normalcy bias” also known as “analysis paralysis.” There’s more than idle speculation behind the suspicion that change is in the air.

A case in point came last week when Sebastopol mortgage interest rate watchers got a peek into the rate-setters’ minds. The November 2 release of the Federal Reserve’s notes from their last Open Market Committee meeting wasn’t entertaining reading, but did shed some light on what lies ahead:

  • Committee members agree that their goal remains 2% inflation (it’s less than that now) coupled with “maximum employment and price stability.”
  • They believe the case for a rate hike has strengthened but is not yet sufficient to raise rates.
  • The Committee expects economic conditions will evolve to warrant gradual increases in the Fed funds rate.
  • Two members voted to raise the target rate ½ to ¾% without waiting further.

All in all, if future Sebastopol home buyers have a normalcy bias which leads them to expect today’s rates will be around indefinitely, it’s safe to say they are more likely to be disappointed than not. That makes right now an excellent time to take advantage of all the bargains currently populating the Sebastopol market—which means also giving us a call! 

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Posted in: Real Estate Resources, Real Estate Trends + Stats Tagged: #mortgagerates, #normalcybias, #Sebastopolrealestate

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Contact Information

Randy Mack and Heidi Faulkner
Artisan Sotheby's International Realty
6984 McKinley Street
Sebastopol CA 95472
(707) 696-6272
(707) 480-4098
Fax: (707) 824-0587
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We are proud to have aligned ourselves with Artisan Sotheby’s International Realty an inspirational brand based on heritage, tradition and expertise. We are setting new standards by refining the art of residential brokerage with a practiced eye of identifying the unique value of a property. We offer a deep commitment to excellent service and have a passion for unparalleled quality. Unique homes require skillful marketing through our local expertise and Sotheby’s International Realty interconnected global network of offices that are dedicated to the extraordinary.

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I wish to express my satisfaction and confidence in your ability to find an ideal home for anyone that I would refer to you. My own experience in purchasing and selling a home with you allowed me to witness the fact that you are truly an expert in your field, handling all aspects of residential real estate transactions. From the beginning, your market analysis to the final stages of negotiations, your calm manner and clear explanation kept me knowing I was in the best of hands.

Mr. Mitchler
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Contact Us

Randy Mack - Realtor CA BRE#01252462
randy@mack-faulkner.com

(707) 696-6272
6984 McKinley Street
Sebastopol, CA 95472



Heidi Faulkner - Realtor CA BRE#01227446
Heidi@mack-faulkner.com

(707) 480-4098
6984 McKinley Street
Sebastopol, CA 95472



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